PRELIMINARIES
- Introduction To Descriptive Statistics – In this video we introduce descriptive statistics.
- Investment Returns – In this video we analyze annual returns on US investments.
- Random Variables and Women’s Heights – In this video we define random variables and analyze the height of American women.
WAS THE 1969 DRAFT LOTTERY FAIR?
- 1969 Draft Lottery Part One – This video shows discusses the 1969 Vietnam Draft Lottery.
- 1969 Draft Lottery Part Two – In this video we use a two sample test to show the 1969 draft lottery was not fair and the 1970 lottery was fair.
- Draft Lottery Boxplots – In this video we use Boxplots to show the 1969 lottery was unfair and 1970 lottery was fair.
WHO WON: GORE OR BUSH?
- Who Won: Gore or Bush? – In this video we analyze the controversial 2000 POTUS Election.
WAS LIVERPOOL OVER BARCELONA THE GREATEST UPSET IN SPORTS HISTORY?
- Ponzi Schemes – In this video we use betting predictions to show Leicester winning the Premiere League was the greatest upset of all time.
HOW DID BERNIE MADOFF KEEP HIS FUND GOING?
- Ponzi Schemes – This video shows how Ponzi schemes work.
- Bernie’s Alleged Strategy – This video explains Madoff’s “split strike strategy”.
- Benford’s Law and Country Populations – This video shows that 30% of all country populations begin with 1.
- Why Benford’s Law Works – This video hows how to use a simulation to show why Benford’s Law works.
- Benford’s Law and Madoff Returns – This video shows that Madoff’s made up returns violate Benford’s Law.
- Sharpe Ratio for Madoff – This video shows that Madoff’s Sharpe Ratio was suspiciously high.
IS THE LOT OF THE US WORKER IMPROVING?
- The US Worker – This video shows the lot of the typical US worker has not improved much over the last fifty years.
MEASURING INCOME INEQUALITY
- Measures of Income Inequality – In this video we discuss the Gini, Palam, and Atkinson indices of inequality.
MODELING RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN TWO VARIABLES
- Estimating a Demand Line and the Beta of a Stock – In this video we discuss determining the least square demand curve and estimating the Beta of Madoff’s made up returns.
- RSQ, Correlations, and Regression to the Mean – In this video we discuss why a high RSQ may not prove anything and define and discuss correlation.
- The Power Curve and Elasticity – In this video we discuss the power curve and its relationship to price elasticity
INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY
- Introduction to Intergenerational Mobility – In this video we discuss how economists measure income mobility between generations.
- Computing Rank Rank and IGE – In this video we show how to compute IGE and Rank-Rank measures of Intergenerational mobility.
- Quintiles and the Gatsby Curve – In this video we discuss how quintiles relate to Intergenerational mobility and look at Krueger’s Gatsby Curve that relates income inequality and intergenerarional mobility.
IS ANDERSON ELEMENTARY A GOOD SCHOOL?
- Free Lunch Percentage – In this video we show that the fraction of students getting free lunches explains around 50% of the variation in pass rate on standardized tests.
TEACHER EVALUATION METHODS
- Teacher Evaluation Based on Tests – In this video we discuss the pros and cons of evaluating K-12 teachers based on test scores.
- Common Teacher Evaluation Methods – In this video we use Pivot Tables to illustrate simple methods for evaluating teachers based on test scores.
BERKELEY, BUSES, CARS AND PLANES
- Simpson’s Paradox – This video shows women are less likely to be accepted in their major than men, but in each major women are more likely to be accepted. How can this happen?
- Three More Paradoxes – In this video we resolve three more analytic paradoxes.
MANU OR MELO FOR HOF?
- Is Carmelo Anthony a Hall of Famer? – In this video we show that Manu Ginobili is more deserving than Carmelo Anthony of election to the NBA Hall of Fame.
WAS DEREK JETER A GREAT FIELDER?
- Was Derek Jeter a Great Fielder? – In this video we show that although he won 5 gold gloves, Derek Jeter was a below average fielder.
DRIVE FOR SHOW PUTT FOR DOUGH?
- Golf Analytics – In this video we introduce you to the concept of strokes gained, which has revolutionized golf.
WHAT’S WRONG WITH THE NFL QB RATING?
- Using Regression To Calculate NFL QB Rating – In this video we show how to use multiple regression to reverse engineer the NFL QB rating formula.
- Interpreting Multiple Regression Output – In this video we show how to interpret multiple regression output.
- Using The TREND Function To Make Predictions – In this video we we use the TREND function to make multiple regression predictions.
- Problems With NFL QB Rating – In this video we show that the NFL QB rating has fatal flaws.
- Alternatives To The NFL QB Rating – In this video we discuss alternatives to the NFL QB rating.
SOME SPORTS HAVE ALL THE LUCK?
- Which Sports Have The Most Skill and Least Luck? – In this video we develop a simple method for measuring the relative importance of skill and luck in team sports.
GERRYMANDERING
- Gerrymandering – In this video we discuss how state legislatures can draw House districts to make their congressional delegation non-representative of their state’s population.
EVIDENCE BASED MEDICINE
- Scurvy and Evidence Based Medicine – In this video we discuss randomized controlled trials and evidence based medicine.
- The Streptomycin Trial – In this video we discuss the RCT that showed streptomycin is effective in treating TB.
- RCT’s and Hormone Replacement – In this video we discuss the complex issue of whether hormone replacement increases mortality.
COMPARING HOSPITALS
- Comparing Hospitals – In this video we discuss some of the pitfalls involved in rating hospitals.
WHAT IS THE WORST HEALTH CARE PROBLEM IN YOUR?
- Using DALY’s to Compare Health Problems – In this video we show how the DALY (Disability Adjusted Life Years) can be used to determine the importance of difference health problems in any country.
- DALY Dashboards – In this video we explore IHME’s DALY dashboards to show how different regions of the world face different health problems.
DOES A MUTUAL FUND’S PAST PERFORMANCE PREDICT FUTURE PERFORMANCE?
- Introduction to Mutual Fund Ratings – In this video we discuss Morningstar’s method for rating mutual funds.
- The Sortino Ratio – In this we show how the Sortino Ratio improves on the Sharpe Ratio.
- Seeking Alpha – In this video we discuss alpha, which is an important measure of investment performance.
- Do Morningstar Ratings Do A Good Job Of Predicting Future Performance? – In this video we discuss a Wall Street Journal study that shows 5 star and 1 star funds regress to the mean in future performance.
- How Does The Performance Fee Affect Long-Run Investment Performance? – In this video we show that if performance is identical, an advisor taking a 2% annual fee reduces your 30 year ending capital by 30% compared to an advisor taking a 0.1% annual fee.
IS VEGAS GOOD AT PICKING NFL GAMES?
- Why Do NFL Bets Work? – In this video we describe the NFL point spread, totals, and money line bets.
- Evaluating Forecast – In this video we discuss the key measures of forecast bias and accuracy.
- Are Point Spreads Biased? – In this video we show that NFL point spreads exhibit little or no bias.
WILL MY NEW HIRES BE GOOD EMPLOYEES?
- Intelligence Is Key Predictor Of Job Performance – In this video we discuss research that indicates that intelligence is the best predictor of job performance.
SHOULD I GO TO PRINCETON OR STATE U?
- Ivy League Is Overrated – In this video we show that after adjusting for student quality, researchers found Ivy League Schools do not add more value than quality state schools.
WILL MY FAVORITE SPORTS TEAM BE GREAT NEXT YEAR?
- Regression To The Mean In The NFL And NBA – In this video we show how regression to the mean explains why great teams fall to earth the next season.
WHAT’S WRONG WITH THE NFL QB RATING?
- Using The Inverted Yield Curve And Sahm Rule To Predict Recessions – In this video we show how the Inverted Yield Curve and the Sahm Unemployment rate rule can be used to predict recessions.
- Conditional Formatting With A Formula – In this video we show how formulas can be used to create conditional formats.
- Introduction To SPC – In this video we explain the basics of control charts and how to tell if a process mean has shifted.
- Using Control Charts To Predict The 2008 Housing Crisis – In this video we use control charts to identify the housing price bubble and housing price collapse.
WHAT’S WRONG WITH THE NFL QB RATING?
- What Data Is Used By Target To Predict If A Woman Is Pregnant? – In this video we discuss the data used to predict if a woman is pregnant and the technique of logistic regression.
- More On Logistic Regression And Target – In this video we show that for any predicted likelihood of a woman being pregnant, the logistic regression model does not exhibit much bias.
HOW DOES NETFLIX RATE MOVIES?
- Introduction To Collaborative Filtering – In this video we introduce the concept of collaborative filtering and give an example of user based collaborative filtering.
- User Based Collaborative Filtering, The Netflix Prize And House Of Cards – In this video we give an example of User Based Collaborative filtering and discuss the Netflix Prize competition and the reason why Netflix made House of Cards.
CAN THE APPLE WATCH SPOT THE AFIB?
- What Are Sensitivity, Specificity And Posterior Probability? – In this video we define the sensitivity and specificity of a medical test.
- Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve (ROC)– In this video we discuss the construction and interpretation of the ROC curve.
- Apple Heart Study– In this video we show that the Apple Heart Study has low sensitivity.
IS PROACTIVE POLICING EFFECTIVE?
- Does Hot Spot Policing Reduce Crime? – In this video we discuss a study that uses an RCT to show adding police reduces crime in high crime areas.
- Other Police Strategies – In this video we look at predictive policing, stop and frisk, CCTV, and broken windows approaches to policing.
GUESS HOW MANY ARE COMING TO DINNER?
- A Simple Model To Predict Daily Customers – In this video we develop a model using trend, day of week, week of year, and holidays to predict customer count at a restaurant.
- Setting Up The Spreadsheet – In this video we explain the formulas needed to create and evaluate our daily forecasts.
- Using The Excel Solver – In this video we introduce the Excel Solver and use it to find the best customer forecasts.
- Which Variables Are Most Useful For Forecasting Customer Counts? – In this video we show the day of the week and holidays are the most useful variables in creating our forecasts.
PREDICTION MARKETS
- How Can Prediction Markets Be Used To Predict The Future? – In this video we show how prediction markets provide a simple mechanism for making accurate future forecasts.
THE ABCs OF POLLING
- How Do Polls Work? – In this video we discuss important concepts needed to understand polling and look at reasons why polls sometimes fail.
WHY DID THE DRESS GO VIRAL?
- Why Did The Buzzfeed Dress Go Viral? – In this video we discuss memes, social lift ,and Instagram engagement.
PREDICTING GAME OF THRONES RATINGS
- Taylor Swift Vs. Adele – In this video we compare search activity for these two great performers.
- Using Google Trends – In this video we show how Google Trends can be used to predict ratings for each GOT premiere episode.
DOES SMOKING CAUSE LUNG CANCER?
- Smoking And Lung Cancer – In this video we review the history of the debate about whether smoking cases lung cancer.
WHY ARE THE HOUSTON ROCKETS A GOOD BASKETBALL TEAM?
- Middle School Math And The NBA – In this video we show how the Rockets’ shot selection, not their shooting ability contributes to their great success.
WHY ARE BUNTS AND INTENTIONAL WALKS DECREASING?
- Why Are Bunts And IBB’s Less Common? – In this video we explore the reasons why in most situations bunts and intentional walks are not beneficial.
NFL DECISION MAKING
- NFL Decision Making Is Flawed – In this video we show NFL teams should pass more, go for it more on 4th down, and go for 2 more often.
CHOLERA IN LONDON
- John Snow The G.O.A.T Of Doctors – In this video we show you how the great John Snow showed contaminated water caused cholera.
- Bubble Charts In The Time Of Cholera – In this video we show how to create a bubble chart that shows the preponderance of cholera deaths near the Broad Street pump.
HOW DOES THE MARKETING MIX AFFECT SALES?
- Predicting Painter’s Tape Sales – In this video we develop a model to predict product sales based on quarter of the year, product on display, availability of coupons, and product price.
- Using The GRG Multistart Solver Engine – In this video we show how to use the GRG multistart engine to fit complex forecasting models.
EXPLAINING THE PARETO PRINCIPLE
- The Pareto Principle And Power Laws – In this video we show how power laws lead to the 80-20 rule.
- The Long Tail And Power Law For Income – In this video we explain how 10% of all book titles can generate 84% of all sales and how power laws explain the Pareto distribution of income.
- Rich Get Richer And Websites – In this video we show how the rich get richer theory explains how few websites dominate the Internet.
DOES WHERE I GROW UP MATTER?
- Cook County Vs. Dupage County – In this video we explore how moving a low income child to a better neighborhood can give them a better chance at success.
THE WAITING IS THE HARDEST PART
- Analyzing Waiting Lines – In this video we show how to determine the average time and number of people in a queueing system.
- Data Tables And Queuing – In this video we use data tables to perform a sensitivity analysis on a queueing system.
DO ROUNDABOUTS WORK?
- Why Do Roundabouts Work? – In this video we discuss the pros and cons of roundabouts.
RED LIGHT, GREEN LIGHT, NO LIGHT?
- How Do Ramp Meters Work? – In this video we discuss how ramp meters improve freeway traffic performance.
HOW TO IMPROVE K-12 EDUCATION
- Reducing K-12 Class Size – In this video we discuss how reducing K-2 class size improves test scores.
- Cost Benefit Analysis – In this video we estimate a 9.8% annual rate of return on reduced K-12 class size.
HOW DOES A/B TESTING WORK?
- A/B Testing – In this video we describe A/B testing, which is used to improve performance of websites and Facebook Ads.
HOW SHOULD I ALLOCATE MY RETIREMENT PORTFOLIO?
- Introduction To Portfolio Optimization – In this video we discuss how to trade off risk vs. return when determining your portfolio’s asset allocation.
- Solver Portfolio Optimization – In this video we work through an asset allocation with the Excel Solver.
HOW DO HEDGE FUNDS WORK?
- Introduction To Hedge Funds – In this video we discuss long, short, and market neutral hedge funds.
- Convertible Bond And Merger Arbitrage – In this video we discuss convertible bond and merger arbitrage strategies.
- Global Macro And Worst Case Strategies – In this video we discuss Global Macro strategies and a portfolio optimization approach that maximizes the worst case return.
INVENTORY
- How Much Should We Order? – In this video we discuss the economic order quantity (EOQ) that tells you the cost minimizing order quantity.
- When Should We Order? – In this video we discuss how to use the service level approach to determine how low to let inventory go before you reorder.
HOW DOES THE UPS DRIVER KNOW THE ORDER TO DELIVER PACKAGES?
- The Traveling Salesperson Problem (TSP) – In this video we discuss the problem of visiting a list of cities once and returning home and traveling the least distance.
- Using The Solver To Solve The TSP – In this video we use the “All Different” feature of the Solver to solve a TSP.
ANALYTICS IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
- Obama And Trump’S Use Of Analytics – In this video we discuss how analytics was a key factor in the 2012 and 2016 Presidential elections.
- Solver And Logistic Regression – In this video we show how to use the Solver and logistic regression to estimate the probability a voter is a Democrat.
CAN ANALYTICS SAVE THE REPUBLIC?
- How To Pick A Winner – In this video we show it is really hard to find a rule that is good for choosing the winner in an election.
- Approval Voting And Quadratic Voting – In this video we describe Approval and Qaudratic voting.
THE WINNER’S CURSE
- The Winner’s Curse – In this video we discuss why people overpay when bidding for things.
- Avoiding The Winner’s Curse – In this video we use simulation to show how to adjust a bid to avoid the winner’s curse.
MUSIC AND ANALYTICS
- Can Analytics Recognize, Predict, Or Write A Hit Song? – In this video we discuss how Shazam works, how Norah Jones’ debut album was sure to be a smash hit, and how computers try and write songs.
CAN ALGORITHMS IMPROVE PAROLE DECISIONS?
- How Are Algorithms Used In Parole Decisions? – In this video we discuss the problem of disparate impact when algorithms are used in parole decisions.
- ProPublica And Parole Bias – In this video we give an introduction to AI and show how it can improve parole decisions.
- AI And Parole Decisions – In this video we introduce you to the concept of strokes gained, which has revolutionized golfP
DOES THE BASEBALL SHIFT WORK?
- The Shift – In this video we show how the baseball shift kills left-hand hitters.
HOW DID ANALYTICS HELP THE DALLAS MAVERICKS WIN THE 2011 NBA TITLE?
- Rating Players And Lineups – In this video we show how analytics gave the Dallas Mavericks and New York Knicks an edge in the NBA.
WHO GETS THE HOUSE IN THE HAMPTONS?
- How Can We Fairly Resolve Conflict Among Two Parties? – In this video we show how the Excel Solver can come up with an optimal division of property in a divorce.
