Monte Carlo Simulation With @RISK
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This is the complete training. 40 years of experience helping virtually all of the Fortune 500 companies through his books or in person training.

60+ videos, 100+ downloadable files covering 6+ hours of content. Just scroll up to see what each video covers. Give us a try and if at anytime in the first 30 days you are unsatisfied, just reach out and we will give you a 100% refund.

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Introduction to @Risk
In this video we use the classic news-person problem with discrete demand to introduce Monte Carlo Simulation with @RISK.

Simulations With The Normal Random Variable
In this video we solve the classic news-person problem with normal demand to introduce Monte Carlo Simulation with @RISK. We also illustrate the different graphs that can be used to summarize an @RISK simulation.

Using Riskstatistical Functions
In this video we show how to use the RISKMEAN and RISKSTDDEV functions to update the mean and standard deviations of a simulation as the simulation is run.

Introduction To Capital Budgeting And The Triangular Random Variable
In this video we use @RISK and the triangular random variable to determine if GM should produce a new car.

Modeling The Product Life Cycle And Sensitivity Analysis With @Risk
In this video we show how to model sales volume over time using the product life cycle and explain how @RISK can be used to determine the input random variables that have the most influence on simulation output cells.

RiskGeneral Random Variable
In this video we show how the RISKGENERAL random variable can be used to model a continuous random variable.

The RiskCumul Random Variable
In this video we show how the RISKCUMUL function can be used to model a continuous random variable.

The RISKTRIGEN Random Variable
In this video we show how the RISKTRIGEN function is used to generalize the triangular random variable.

Statistical Analysis Of @Risk Outputs
In this video we show how to find a 95% confidence interval for the average value of a simulation output cell and a range that includes 95% of the actual values for an @RISK output cell.

Should We Drill For Oil?
In this video we ask the question, How can we use @RISK to determine whether it is a good idea to drill for oil?

The Scenario Approach To Capital Budgeting
In this video we show how uncertain market share and development expenses can be modeled by defining scenarios for product acceptance.

Plugin Means For Option Pricing
In this video we use a simple option pricing example to show that replacing a random future stock price by its mean does not yield the correct mean for the output cell (cash flow from the option).

Valuing An Acquisition
In this video we show how to value an acquisition, including the concept of Terminal Value.

Using @RiskS Goal Seek Capability
In this video we use @RISKs Goal Seek Capability to determine the terminal growth rate that makes an acquisition a good deal.

Simulating The NBA Finals
In this video we show how to determine the chance that a team wins a best of 7 NBA series. We also determine the probability that the series will go 4, 5, 6, or 7 games.

Simulating Craps
In this video we show how to determine the chance of winning at craps.

Three Dimensional Random Walk
In this video we analyze a three dimensional random walk and show that like Charley on the MTA (Kingston Trio) you may never return!

Birthday Problem
In this video we show that with 23 people in the room there is a 50-50 chance that at least two people have the same birthday.

Finding Your Best Partner
In this video we show how to determine how many people to interview in order to maximize your chance of finding your best partner.

Calculating Poker Probabilities
In this video we use @RISK to determine the chance of getting one pair, two pair, or a full house in 5 card draw poker.

The Optimal Bid
In this video we show how @RISK can be used to determine the optimal bid on a construction project.

Introduction To RISKOPTIMIZER
In this video we show how RISKOPTIMIZER allows you to generalize a RISKSIMTABLE and solve for the order quantity of calendars that maximizes expected profit in the presence of uncertain demand.

Multi-Product Newsperson Problem
In this video we use RISKOPTIMIZER to solve a multi-product newsperson problem.

Scheduling Hospital Nurses
In this video we find the minimum number of nurses needed to ensure that during during a week there is at most a 5% chance of not having enough nurses.

Bid Optimization With RISKOPTIMIZER
In this video we show how to use RISKOPTIMIZER to determine a bid that maximizes expected profit in the presence of uncertainty.

Rescuing The Iran Hostages
In this video we show how @RISK could have increased the chances of a successful rescue of the hostages during the 1980 Iran Hostage Crisis.

Sequencing Jobs With Uncertain Duration
In this video we use RISKOPTIMIZER to sequence jobs of uncertain duration to minimize the expected number of late days.

Choosing A Portfolio Of Capital Budgeting Projects
In this video we use RISKOPTIMIZER to choose a subset of capital budgeting projects that meet a spending constraint.

Modeling Correlated Random Variables
In this video we show how to use the RISKCORRMAT function to model correlated (non-independent) random variables. You will also learn how to overlay multiple simulation outputs on a single graph.

Creating Multiple Instances of Correlations
In this video we show how you can create multiple instances of correlated random variables. For example, the percentage change in the price of each of 4 stocks on day N may be correlated, but none of the day N percentages are correlated with any other day.

Generating Future Investment Scenarios
In this video we use re-sampling to generate future scenarios for returns on important asset classes.

Optimal Portfolios Using Var And Sharpe Ratio
In this video we show how to find portfolios that optimize Value at Risk (VAR) and the Sharpe Ratio.

Optimal Portfolios Using Stress Testing And Downside Risk
In this video we show how to find portfolios that maximize a portfolios worst case or minimize a portfolios downside risk.

Optimal Portfolios Controlling A PortfolioS Beta Or Conditional Var
In this video we show how to find portfolios that control risk by setting the portfolios Beta or maximizing the portfolios Conditional VAR.

Fitting A Discrete Distribution To Data
In this video we use @RISKs Distribution Fitting Feature to show that goals scored in an NHL game follow a Poisson random variable.

Fitting A Continuous Random Variable To Data
In this video we use @RISKs Distribution Fitting Feature to show that the margin of victory in an NFL game follows a normal random variable.

The Winners Curse
In this video we show how to incorporate the Winners Curse into your optimal bidding strategy.

The Black-Scholes Option Pricing Formulas
In this video we show how to use the Black-Scholes formula to price European call and put options.

Using The Lognormal Random Variable To Simulate Stock Prices
In this video we show how to use financial data from Yahoo.com and the Lognormal random variable to model future stock prices.

Butterfly or Straddle?
In this video we discuss the relative merits of a Butterfly or Straddle strategy involving options of Microsoft stock.

Introduction To Utility Theory
In this video we show how utility functions can be used to make decisions under uncertainty which incorporate the decision-makers attitude towards risk.

Exponential Utility
In this video we describe how to use the exponential utility function to model a decision-makers attitude towards risk.

Asset Allocation Via Expected Utility
In this video we show how to use utility theory to tailor an asset allocation to a decision-makers attitude towards risk.

Project Management With @Risk
In this video we show how to use @RISK to model the uncertain duration of a project.

Finding The Probability That Activities Are Critical
In this video we use @RISK to estimate the probability that each of a projects activities are critical.

Introduction To Re-Sampling
In this video we show how re-sampling can be used to replace many hard to remember statistical hypothesis tests.

Is a New Cancer Drug Worthwhile?
In this video we use re-sampling and results from 12 patients to show a new cancer drug is a significant improvement over an old cancer drug.

Was The 1970 Draft Lottery Fair?
In this video we use re-sampling to show that the 1970 draft lottery was not random.

Beta Re-Sampling
In this video we use re-sampling to show that there is an 80% chance that Dell has the highest beta among a list of 6 stocks.

A Bidding Paradox
In this video we use @RISK to resolve a bidding paradox.

Heads Or Tails?
In this video we show that when tossing a coin repeatedly it is much more likely that THH comes before HHH.

Should We Have Known Madoff Was A Fraud?
In this video we use the Sharpe Ratio and re-sampling to to show that the SEC should have realized well before 2008 that Madoffs fund was a fraud.

How to Hedge FX Risk?
In this video we use @RISK to show how a company can hedge FX risk.

Fashion Ordering Part One
In this video we use RISKOPTIMIZER to determine how a fashion retailer can maximize expected profit when early sales of a product are a good indicator of future demand.

Fashion Ordering Part Two
In this video we continue our discussion on fashion ordering.

Introduction To Supply Contracts
In this video we introduce a simple supply chain where coats are manufactured in Asia for a US retailer.

Buyback Contracts
In this video we show that when the manufacturer is willing to buy back leftover coats both the retailer and manufacturer benefit.

Revenue Sharing Contracts
In this video we show that if the retailer shares some revenue with the manufacturer and the manufacturer reduces the wholesale price, then the performance of the supply chain improves.

Optimizing The Whole Supply Chain
In this video we show how buy back and revenue sharing contracts drive the supply chain to maximize expected profit.

Pricing Path dependent options by Simulation
In this video we show how to use simulation to price path dependent options.

Risk Neutral Valuation
In this video we show how simulation and the risk neutral approach to asset valuation allow us to use simulation to price a European call and put option.

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Monte Carlo Simulation With Palisade @RISK Add-In

$397 / lifetime access

Best Course I've Taken

5/5

Best professor I’ve ever had. I’d take him for anything and think he could teach anything, but Decision modeling in spreadsheets was the best, most relevant (for a finance major like me at least) class I had as an MBA student. Hope you are well Professor Winston!

Todd Williams

Perfect Course!

5/5

Im on day 4 and already feeling more knowledgeable and empowered!

Jeff Skirvin

Amazing & Useful Content

5/5

Ive enjoyed the training very much. Ive been using excel for many years, but with Waynes training, Ive been able to do things quicker which saves me time and allows me to complete my projects faster. I recommend this training. Its awesome. Thanks Wayne.

Luis Arroyo

Frequently asked questions
Is there a guarantee?

Yes! We offer a 30 day, no questions asked, money back guarantee. So if at anytime during the first 30 days you arent 100% satisfied, just let us know and we will refund the investment.

How long will I have access to the course?

How does forever sound? All of our courses offer lifetime access. So just invest in yourself once, and have the course forever.

Are the files included in the course?

Yes! Once you enroll, you can download any of the more than 1,500+ files. The before and after files are included in the course which will help you be able to easily follow along. Please note that the videos can not be downloaded.

Can I pay monthly?

Currently we only have lifetime plans.

How up to date is the course?

As new functionality is released on @risk, we will update the course making sure to keep all the students up to date.

Is this course right for me?

The @risk course specializes in risk modeling and uses the Palisades @risk add-in. This course is built from Dr. Winstons more than40 years of experience teaching at the top universities and Fortune 500 companies in the world as. Take a look above at the syllabus above to see EXACTLY what you will learn.