Monte Carlo Simulation Syllabus

Monte Carlo Simulation

This course covers Monte Carlo Simulation and consists of 14 topics.

Introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation – In this video we introduce Monte Carlo Simulation. Monte Carlo can model the probability distribution of outcomes in the presence of uncertainty.
The RAND and RANDBETWEEN Functions – In this video we illustrate the RAND and RANDBETWEEN functions which are the key to Excel simulations.
Simulating a Discrete Random Variable – In this video we show how to simulate a discrete random variable.
Simulating a Normal Random Variable – In this video we show how to simulate a normal random variable.
Simulating a Baseball Inning – In this video we simulate the number of runs a baseball team scores in an inning.
The Birthday Problem – In this video we use simulation to estimate the probability that if n people are in the room at least two people have the same birthday.
Craps – In this video we show how to determine the probability of winning at craps.
The Newsperson Problem – In this video we show how to determine an order or production quantity that maximizes expected profit in the presence of uncertain demand.
Bidding – In this video we show how to determine a bid that maximizes expected profit given the uncertainty about competitor’s bidding behavior.
Poker – In this video we show how to “draw” a five card poker hand and calculate the chance of getting two pair.
Simulating the NBA Finals – In this video we show how simulation can be used to estimate the chance of each team winning the NBA finals.
Gambler’s Ruin – In this video we answer the question, “If I have $2 and play an unfair game, what is the chance I get to $6 before going bankrupt?”
Stock Problem – In this video we answer the question, “If a stock is equally likely to return 60% or -40% each year, is it a good stock?” You might be surprised!
Winning Streak – In this video we show how to determine the average length of the longest winning streak for a team that wins 70% of their games.
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