## Monte Carlo **Simulation**

This course covers Monte Carlo Simulation and consists of 14 topics.

Introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation –

**In this video we introduce Monte Carlo Simulation. Monte Carlo can model the probability distribution of outcomes in the presence of uncertainty.**The RAND and RANDBETWEEN Functions –

**In this video we illustrate the RAND and RANDBETWEEN functions which are the key to Excel simulations.**Simulating a Discrete Random Variable –

**In this video we show how to simulate a discrete random variable.**Simulating a Normal Random Variable –

**In this video we show how to simulate a normal random variable.**Simulating a Baseball Inning –

**In this video we simulate the number of runs a baseball team scores in an inning.**The Birthday Problem –

**In this video we use simulation to estimate the probability that if n people are in the room at least two people have the same birthday.**Craps –

**In this video we show how to determine the probability of winning at craps.**The Newsperson Problem –

**In this video we show how to determine an order or production quantity that maximizes expected profit in the presence of uncertain demand.**Bidding –

**In this video we show how to determine a bid that maximizes expected profit given the uncertainty about competitor’s bidding behavior.**Poker –

**In this video we show how to “draw” a five card poker hand and calculate the chance of getting two pair.**Simulating the NBA Finals –

**In this video we show how simulation can be used to estimate the chance of each team winning the NBA finals.**Gambler’s Ruin –

**In this video we answer the question, “If I have $2 and play an unfair game, what is the chance I get to $6 before going bankrupt?”**Stock Problem –

**In this video we answer the question, “If a stock is equally likely to return 60% or -40% each year, is it a good stock?” You might be surprised!**Winning Streak –

**In this video we show how to determine the average length of the longest winning streak for a team that wins 70% of their games.**